Paul Lachine

Barili, Panieri e Obbligazioni

CAMBRIDGE – Si può proprio dire che i prezzi degli idrocarburi, dei minerali e dei beni agricoli siano sulle montagne russe da un po’. Anche se i prezzi delle materie prime sono da sempre più variabili di quelli di manufatti e servizi, i mercati delle commodity negli ultimi cinque anni hanno visto una instabilità straordinaria, quasi senza precedenti.

I paesi specializzati nell’esportazione di petrolio, rame, ferro, grano, caffè o altri prodotti di base hanno visto una forte espansione, ma sono estremamente vulnerabili. Il prezzo in dollari delle commodity può crollare in qualsiasi momento, a seguito di una nuova recessione, di un aumento nei tassi di interesse reali negli Stati Uniti, delle fluttuazioni del clima, o di fattori aleatori specifici ad un determinato settore.

Sono particolarmente vulnerabili i paesi indebitati in dollari o in altra valuta straniera. Se i loro proventi dalle esportazioni precipitassero relativamente agli interessi sulle obbligazioni, ne potrebbero risultare crisi simili a quelle del 1982 in America Latina o alla crisi valutaria del 1997-1998 in Asia e Russia.

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