Paul Lachine

Mehr Stabilität durch Rohstoffanleihen

CAMBRIDGE – Die Preise für fossile Brennstoffe, Mineralien und landwirtschaftliche Güter befinden sich auf einer veritable Achterbahnfahrt. Obwohl Rohstoffpreise immer größeren Schwankungen unterliegen als die Preise von Fertigerzeugnissen und Dienstleistungen, waren die Rohstoffmärkte in den letzten fünf Jahren mit einer außergewöhnlichen, beinahe beispiellosen Volatilität konfrontiert.

Länder, die sich auf den Export von Öl, Kupfer, Eisenerz, Weizen, Kaffee oder anderen Rohstoffen spezialisieren, erleben zwar einen Boom, aber sie sind auch höchst verwundbar. In Folge einer neuen Rezession, eines Anstiegs der realen Zinssätze in den USA, Klimaschwankungen oder zufälliger sektorspezifischer Faktoren könnten die Dollar-Preise dieser Güter jederzeit drastisch sinken.

Betroffen sind vor allem Länder, die Schulden in Dollar oder anderen ausländischen Währungen haben. Kommt es zu einem drastischen Einbruch ihrer Export-Einnahmen im Verhältnis zu ihren Verpflichtungen aus dem Schuldendienst, könnte das Resultat der Krise in Lateinamerika im Jahr 1982 ähneln oder den asiatischen und russischen Währungskrisen der Jahre 1997-1998.

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