Paul Lachine

桶、蒲式耳和债券

坎布里奇——碳氢化合物、原材料和农业商品的价格真称得上是大起大落。商品价格总是比制成品和服务价格波动更大,但过去五年的商品市场波动性之巨颇为反常,可谓前所未有。

专门从事原油、铜、铁矿石、小麦、咖啡和其他商品出口的国家获得了繁荣,但它们经不起折腾。美元商品价格随时随地都可能因新衰退到来、美国真实利率上升、气候波动和随机部门因素而崩溃。

有着未了结美元或其他外币债务的国家尤其脆弱。如果它们的出口收入相对于债务维持成本发生崩溃,结果将是重演1982年的拉美悲剧或1997—1998年的亚洲和俄罗斯货币危机。

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