Paul Lachine

البراميل، ومكاييل الحبوب، والسندات

كمبريدج ــ كانت أسعار المواد الهيدروكربونية (مثل النفط والغاز الطبيعي والفحم)، والمعادن، والسلع الزراعية، وكأنها تمتطي قطار ملاه حقيقي. فعلى الرغم مما تتسم به أسعار السلع الأساسية دوماً بالتقلب مقارنة بأسعار السلع المصنعة والخدمات، فإن أسواق السلع الأساسية شهدت على مدى الأعوام الخمسة الماضية قدراً غير عادي وغير مسبوق من التقلب.

فقد شهدت البلدان المتخصصة في تصدير النفط أو النحاس أو الحديد أو القمح أو القهوة، أو غير ذلك من السلع الأساسية، ازدهاراً ملموسا، ولكنها رغم ذلك معرضة للخطر إلى حد كبير. ذلك أن أسعار السلع الأساسية بالدولار قد تهبط إلى مستويات متدنية للغاية في أي وقت، نتيجة للركود الجديد، أو الزيادة في أسعار الفائدة الحقيقية في الولايات المتحدة، أو التقلبات المناخية، أو عوامل عشوائية مرتبطة بقطاعات محددة.

والبلدان التي لديها ديون غير مسددة بالدولار أو أي عملة أجنبية أخرى معرضة أيضاً للخطر بشكل خاص. فإذا هبطت عائدات صادراتها نسبة إلى التزامات أقساط الديون المستحقة عليها، فإن النتيجة قد تكون اندلاع أزمات تذكرنا بأزمات العملة التي ضربت أميركا اللاتينية في عام 1982، أو التي ضربت آسيا وروسيا أثناء الفترة 1997-1998.

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