Dean Rohrer

Contemos con el FMI

CHICAGO – La peor pesadilla financiera que acecha a la economía mundial es la insolvencia de un banco internacional grande. Ya sea por el impago de una deuda soberana o por pérdidas importantes acumuladas bajo normas de contabilidad permisivas, la insolvencia de un banco grande (particularmente de un banco europeo), no es una posibilidad remota. Incluso si lo fuera, la crisis financiera de 2008 nos ha enseñado que los acontecimientos poco usuales suceden.

Lo que hace que esta posibilidad sea una pesadilla financiera peor que el colapso de Lehman Brothers en 2008 es el temor de que muchos Estados soberanos ya quemaron toda su pólvora y por lo tanto ya no podrían intervenir. Los instrumentos de cobertura de riesgos crediticios (CDS por su siglas en inglés) de los principales bancos europeos del Sur se negocian a un valor ligeramente inferior que los CDS de sus Estados soberanos, lo que indica que el mercado no percibe que éstos sean capaces de apoyar a aquéllos.

Lamentablemente, casi dos años después del colapso de Lehman's, no se ha hecho mucho para abordar este riesgo. El Congreso de los Estados Unidos está por terminar un proyecto de ley que dará autoridad resolutiva sobre las principales instituciones financieras del país a un consejo sistémico creado recientemente. No obstante, los procedimientos para activar esa intervención son complejos y el financiamiento es tan opaco que la ley no eliminará los daños secundarios derivados de la quiebra de un banco grande ni siquiera para las instituciones estadounidenses, ya no se diga las internacionales, cuyo colapso requeriría la coordinación de varios estados con grados distintos de solvencia.

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