Dean Rohrer

看你的啦,IMF!

发自芝加哥——对于世界经济来说,最大的金融噩梦莫过于某家大型跨国银行的破产。只要爆发主权违约,又或是由于过度自信的会计规则而积累了大量的亏损,一家大型跨国银行(尤其是欧洲银行)出现资不抵债的状况是完全有可能的。而即便这一可能性非常微小,但2008年的经济危机已经告诉我们:再微小的可能也不是没可能的。

而这一比2008年雷曼倒闭更糟的经济噩梦之所以成为可能,就是因为人们担心许多主权国家已经耗尽了所有的资源,因此无力再采取介入行动。我们看到南欧地区各主要银行的信用违约互换(Credit default swaps ,CDS)交易价格都比其所属国家的CDS价格还要稍低一点,意味着市场预期政府将无法对银行予以支撑。

但不幸的是,在雷曼破产近两年后,在应对这些风险方面的措施依然很少。美国国会即将起草完成一项法案,计划新组建一个涵盖整个金融系统的委员会,并授权其处理和美国各大财政机构有关的解救方案。然而触发这一介入行动的程序如此复杂,而救助资金来源又如此模糊不清,以致这项法案不但无法消除大型银行破产(即便是美国国内的金融机构)所产生的间接破坏效应,更遑论那些涉及各国合作,且各国分支机构的偿付能力都不尽相同的跨国银行了。

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