Shibuya, Japan

La errónea vía de escape de Japón

LONDRES – Los mercados financieros se vieron sorprendidos por la reciente introducción por parte del Banco de Japón (BDJ) de tasas de interés negativas a algunas de las reservas bancarias comerciales, pero tenían por qué. Es evidente que el BDJ debía adoptar nuevas medidas para lograr su objetivo inflacionario del 2%, pero ni las tasas de interés negativas ni una ampliación adicional de su ya enorme programa de facilitación cuantitativa (FC) bastarán para hacer frente a las intensas fuerzas deflacionarias que afectan hoy al país.

En 2013, el BDJ predijo que sus operaciones de FC permitirían alcanzar un 2% de inflación en dos años, pero a 2015 la inflación base (que excluye a aquellos elementos volátiles como los alimentos) fue de apenas un 0,5%. Con la caída de diciembre del gasto del consumidor y las ganancias promedio, la meta del 2% parece cada vez más difícil de alcanzar.

La imprevista gravedad de la desaceleración de China es el último factor en afectar los pronósticos del BDJ, pero es la consecuencia predecible (y predicha) de la dinámica de su deuda, cuyas raíces se remontan a 2008.

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