Shibuya, Japan

اليابان تتجه نحو المَخرَج الخاطئ

لندن ــ فوجئت الأسواق المالية بإعلان بنك اليابان مؤخراً عن أسعار الفائدة السلبية على بعض احتياطيات البنوك التجارية، ولكن ما كان ينبغي لها أن تفاجأ، فمن الواضح أن بنك اليابان كان بحاجة إلى اتخاذ بعض الإجراءات السياسية الجديدة لتحقيق مستهدفه من التضخم بنسبة 2%. ولكن لا أسعار الفائدة السلبية ولا المزيد من توسيع برنامج بنك اليابان الضخم بالفعل للتيسير الكمي قد يكون كافياً لموازنة القوى الانكماشية الشديدة التي تواجهها اليابان الآن.

تنبأ بنك اليابان عام 2013 بأن عمليات التيسير الكمي التي يجريها ستحقق معدل تضخم 2% خلال عامين، ولكن في 2015 كان معدل التضخم الأساسي 0.5%فقط (باستثناء البنود المتقلبة مثل الغذاء)، ومع انخفاض إنفاق المستهلِكين ومتوسط الدخول في ديسمبر/كانون الأول، تبدو نسبة 2% المستهدفة بعيدة المنال أكثر من ذي قبل.

وتشكل حدة انحدار الصين غير المتوقعة أحدث العوامل التي تربك تنبؤات بنك اليابان، ولكن ذلك التباطؤ هو النتيجة التي يمكن توقعها (والتي كانت متوقعة بالفعل) لديناميكيات الديون التي تعود جذورها إلى عام 2008.

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