Bank UK John Keeble/Getty Images

拒绝的经济学家

伦敦—上个月初,英格兰银行首席经济学家安迪·霍尔丹(Andy Haldane)指责“不理性的行为”是英格兰银行最新预测模型失败的原因。没能预见到这一不理性导致决策者预测英国经济会因为去年6月的退欧公投而减速。相反,自退欧投票结束以来,英国消费者就掀起了一股热情的消费潮;同样诡异的是,兼职也、制造业和服务业也纷纷复苏。

霍尔丹没有对这一非理性行为的大爆发作出解释。他也没办法解释:对他来说,不理性无非意味着行为与英格兰银行的模型所推测的不一致。

不仅霍尔丹或英格兰银行是如此。主流经学家在说不理性行为时,所说的不是你我所认为的。在大白话里,理性行为就是放在具体环境中显得合理的行为。但在新古典预测模型的阳春白雪中,它的意思是,掌握了关于自身、周边环境以及所要面临的未来的详细知识的人,会采取实现他们的目标的最优行动。也就是说,理性行动就是与经济学家的理性行为模型一致的行动。如果碰到相反的行为,经济学家的反应就像是抱怨客户与他们新裁的衣服不合的裁缝。

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