shopping Andrew Burton/Getty Images

Der nächste globale Boom – mit anschließendem Bust

WASHINGTON, DC – Die Stimmung bei der Frühjahrstagung des Internationalen Währungsfonds und der Weltbank Mitte April war düster. Der IWF revidierte seine Prognosen für das weltweite Wachstum erneut nach unten – wodurch diese für heuer und auch für 2017 ein durchschnittliches jährliches Wachstum von lediglich knapp über 3 Prozent ausweisen.  

Bewahrheiten sich diese Prognosen, wäre das eine trostlose Entwicklung. Vor 2007 bewegte sich das weltweite Wachstum (unter Anwendung der Berechnungsmethode des IWF) im Bereich von 4,5 bis 5 Prozent, wobei man von stetigen Produktivitätszuwächsen in Industrieländern und einem rasch steigenden Lebensstandard in großen Schwellenländern wie China, Brasilien und Russland ausging.

Nun stehen die USA vor den Unwägbarkeiten einer Präsidentenwahl, die schwächeren Teile der Eurozone mühen sich weiter ab und Japan taumelt am Rande einer ausgewachsenen wirtschaftlichen Kontraktion. Brasilien befindet sich inmitten einer politischen Krise, China ist mit den Folgen einer längeren fiskalischen Expansion und des explosiven Wachstums auf seinen Schattenbankensektor beschäftigt und in vielen anderen Schwellenländern untergraben niedrigere Rohstoffpreise die Wirtschaftsleistung. Obendrein könnten die Briten im Juni auch noch für den Austritt aus der Europäischen Union stimmen.

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