shopping Andrew Burton/Getty Images

De nouvelles tempêtes sur l'économie mondiale ?

WASHINGTON – Mi-avril, la réunion de printemps du FMI et de la Banque mondiale à Washington s'est déroulée dans un climat d'inquiétude. Le FMI avait révisé une fois de plus à la baisse ses projections relatives à la croissance mondiale, avec un taux de croissance annuel prévu à peine supérieur à 3% pour cette année et l'année prochaine.

Si cela se passe ainsi, ce sera un triste résultat. Avant 2007, la croissance mondiale (mesurée selon la méthodologie du FMI) était de l'ordre de 4,5% à 5% grâce à l'amélioration de la productivité des pays industrialisés et à la hausse rapide du niveau de vie dans de grands pays émergents comme la Chine, le Brésil et la Russie.

 Aujourd'hui les USA sont confrontés aux incertitudes de l'élection présidentielle, les pays les plus faibles de la zone euro continuent à se débattre dans les difficultés, le Japon risque de subir une contraction économique marquée, le Brésil est en pleine crise politique, la Chine fait face aux conséquences d'une expansion budgétaire prolongée et à l'onde de choc générée par la croissance explosive de son système des "banques de l'ombre", tandis que le faible prix des matières premières nuit aux résultats économiques de beaucoup d'autres pays émergents. Par ailleurs les Britanniques pourraient voter en juin leur sortie de l'UE.

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