shopping Andrew Burton/Getty Images

De nouvelles tempêtes sur l'économie mondiale ?

WASHINGTON – Mi-avril, la réunion de printemps du FMI et de la Banque mondiale à Washington s'est déroulée dans un climat d'inquiétude. Le FMI avait révisé une fois de plus à la baisse ses projections relatives à la croissance mondiale, avec un taux de croissance annuel prévu à peine supérieur à 3% pour cette année et l'année prochaine.

Si cela se passe ainsi, ce sera un triste résultat. Avant 2007, la croissance mondiale (mesurée selon la méthodologie du FMI) était de l'ordre de 4,5% à 5% grâce à l'amélioration de la productivité des pays industrialisés et à la hausse rapide du niveau de vie dans de grands pays émergents comme la Chine, le Brésil et la Russie.

 Aujourd'hui les USA sont confrontés aux incertitudes de l'élection présidentielle, les pays les plus faibles de la zone euro continuent à se débattre dans les difficultés, le Japon risque de subir une contraction économique marquée, le Brésil est en pleine crise politique, la Chine fait face aux conséquences d'une expansion budgétaire prolongée et à l'onde de choc générée par la croissance explosive de son système des "banques de l'ombre", tandis que le faible prix des matières premières nuit aux résultats économiques de beaucoup d'autres pays émergents. Par ailleurs les Britanniques pourraient voter en juin leur sortie de l'UE.

To continue reading, please log in or enter your email address.

Registration is quick and easy and requires only your email address. If you already have an account with us, please log in. Or subscribe now for unlimited access.

required

Log in

http://prosyn.org/TwaPEAX/fr;
  1. Chris J Ratcliffe/Getty Images

    The Brexit Surrender

    European Union leaders meeting in Brussels have given the go-ahead to talks with Britain on post-Brexit trade relations. But, as European Council President Donald Tusk has said, the most difficult challenge – forging a workable deal that secures broad political support on both sides – still lies ahead.

  2. The Great US Tax Debate

    ROBERT J. BARRO vs. JASON FURMAN & LAWRENCE H. SUMMERS on the impact of the GOP tax  overhaul.


    • Congressional Republicans are finalizing a tax-reform package that will reshape the business environment by lowering the corporate-tax rate and overhauling deductions. 

    • But will the plan's far-reaching changes provide the boost to investment and growth that its backers promise?


    ROBERT J. BARRO | How US Corporate Tax Reform Will Boost Growth

    JASON FURMAN & LAWRENCE H. SUMMERS | Robert Barro's Tax Reform Advocacy: A Response

  3. Murdoch's Last Stand?

    Rupert Murdoch’s sale of 21st Century Fox’s entertainment assets to Disney for $66 billion may mark the end of the media mogul’s career, which will long be remembered for its corrosive effect on democratic discourse on both sides of the Atlantic. 

    From enabling the rise of Donald Trump to hacking the telephone of a murdered British schoolgirl, Murdoch’s media empire has staked its success on stoking populist rage.

  4. Bank of England Leon Neal/Getty Images

    The Dangerous Delusion of Price Stability

    Since the hyperinflation of the 1970s, which central banks were right to combat by whatever means necessary, maintaining positive but low inflation has become a monetary-policy obsession. But, because the world economy has changed dramatically since then, central bankers have started to miss the monetary-policy forest for the trees.

  5. Harvard’s Jeffrey Frankel Measures the GOP’s Tax Plan

    Jeffrey Frankel, a professor at Harvard University’s Kennedy School of Government and a former member of President Bill Clinton’s Council of Economic Advisers, outlines the five criteria he uses to judge the efficacy of tax reform efforts. And in his view, the US Republicans’ most recent offering fails miserably.

  6. A box containing viles of human embryonic Stem Cell cultures Sandy Huffaker/Getty Images

    The Holy Grail of Genetic Engineering

    CRISPR-Cas – a gene-editing technique that is far more precise and efficient than any that has come before it – is poised to change the world. But ensuring that those changes are positive – helping to fight tumors and mosquito-borne illnesses, for example – will require scientists to apply the utmost caution.

  7. The Year Ahead 2018

    The world’s leading thinkers and policymakers examine what’s come apart in the past year, and anticipate what will define the year ahead.

    Order now