shopping Andrew Burton/Getty Images

下一轮全球繁荣——和破灭

华盛顿—本月早些时候在这里举行的国际货币基金组织(IMF)-世界银行春季会议的情绪是阴沉的。最新IMF全球增长预测再次调低——认为今年和2017年世界年增长率将只能略高于3%。

如果成为现实的话,这将是非常糟糕的表现。2007年前,全球增长(用IMF的方法)落在4.5—5%区间,其基础是工业国生产率稳步改善以及中国、巴西和俄罗斯等新兴市场生活水平的迅速提高。

如今,美国面临总统选举的不确定性,欧元区疲软部分仍在挣扎,日本徘徊在全面经济萎缩边缘。巴西陷入了政治危机,中国正在处置长期财政扩张和影子银行体系的爆发式增长带来的后遗症,而大宗商品价格低迷正在动摇许多其他新兴市场的经济表现。除了所有这些情况,英国可能在6月投票脱离欧盟。

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