Comments 13

下一轮全球繁荣——和破灭

Apr 29, 2016 Simon Johnson

华盛顿—本月早些时候在这里举行的国际货币基金组织（IMF）-世界银行春季会议的情绪是阴沉的。最新IMF全球增长预测再次调低——认为今年和2017年世界年增长率将只能略高于3%。

如果成为现实的话，这将是非常糟糕的表现。2007年前，全球增长（用IMF的方法）落在4.5—5%区间，其基础是工业国生产率稳步改善以及中国、巴西和俄罗斯等新兴市场生活水平的迅速提高。

如今，美国面临总统选举的不确定性，欧元区疲软部分仍在挣扎，日本徘徊在全面经济萎缩边缘。巴西陷入了政治危机，中国正在处置长期财政扩张和影子银行体系的爆发式增长带来的后遗症，而大宗商品价格低迷正在动摇许多其他新兴市场的经济表现。除了所有这些情况，英国可能在6月投票脱离欧盟。

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Simon Johnson

Writing for PS since 2007
102 Commentaries

Simon Johnson, a former chief economist of the IMF, is a professor at MIT Sloan, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, and co-founder of a leading economics blog, The Baseline Scenario. He is the co-author, with James Kwak, of White House Burning: The Founding Fathers, Our National Debt, and Why It Matters to You.

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Jamie Dimon/Fang Zhe/ZumaPress

0 Comments on this paragraph, 13 in all 13 Comments on this article

Robbie Jena May 3, 2016

Bad Governance causes lack of Confidence...Everything else is as this OP describes.The Western Civilization that includes Australia, India, Africa, Europe, North and South America are in to it. About 5000 (USA) to 8000 (India) major issues are involved including TTIP that is very hard to understand by Western Groups. Ignoring this would keep the problem continue, guaranteed. Even normal Industrial Ecosystems (that worked in China) would not work under this scenario.
Baxter Jephs May 3, 2016

Why do we like debt? Because capitalism is fundamentally about debt. It's about innovation and speculative endeavors, in a word 'instability'. We need debt to grow, just not runaway debt fueled by housing bubbles and the like.
Baxter Jephs May 3, 2016

"Parts of Europe are doing fine."

They're in the midst of a continental depression, but that's alright cause 'parts of Europe are fine'... and there I am actually wondering why we're unable to act. The ex-chief economist of the IMF doesn't even think there's much of a problem!
george sos May 2, 2016

Debt?I dont owe to anyone,i ve never borrowed a penny and i am not going to accept to pay anything...come and get it if you dare...IMF>
(yes i know they will come,they are already here with their mercenaries and fake "scientists"/"economists".

IMF you said?Oh yes,those who destroy countries with the excuse of the common good(of the rich).
So this is my take for these representatives of the 1%.
They talk too much for nothing.And they blackmail people to accept their orders or else(like many countries around the world).
I think the only way forward for our world is to eliminate this mad system that we allowed to grow on our backs.
We must put an end ,a total and definite end to their power.And the only way to do it is.......
whatever your minds tells you.i know when someone is stealing from me.
Easy money working in an office ,organizing the destruction of humans for profit.
(remember USSR and how putin was installed there ???IMF was there too!!ask mr "death"-tomsen,he was the one arranging things back then...).....

No I dont trust IMF solutions not even their "good intentions"....(probably because there arent any:))
but feel free to keep talking BS.
yancey simon May 2, 2016

Too much private sector debt and no economic policy to speak of save for central bank money transfers to investment banks. The result has been reinflating of asset bubbles in stocks and real estate. We are in a deleveraging debt/deflation with all of the money flows going to the creditors. Not smart----not smart at all.
Ray Phenicie May 1, 2016

I can't agree with the statement about unemployment. Casting it as 5% goes against every analysis I've seen.
Per Kurowski May 1, 2016

The current risk weighted capital requirements for banks permit these obtain higher expected risk adjusted returns on equity on assets perceived decreed or concocted as safe than on assets perceived as risky.

And so there is no question that the next bust is going to result, again, from the dangerous overpopulation of some safe-haven. It will not result from too much lending to SMEs and entrepreneurs exploring risky bays. http://bit.ly/1TgB6EJ
Elizabeth Pula May 1, 2016

Sure unemployment is down to 5%, but how about addressing just how sustainable are the wage? When every person is a household is working, including children, you are not talking about positive outcomes. What parts of Europe are doing fine? All nations in Europe have been hit with aftermath, and current influx of emigrants. The emigration issues have only begun to reveal that "NO", Europe ain't doin fine. Stop kidding yourself and others that "The biggest question is whether we can get off the economic roller coaster and return to robust global growth".
jagjeet sinha May 1, 2016

Debt based finance is often the only choice for developing countries attempting economic emergence.
Bretton Woods Institutions - IMF, WB - did not create cross border equity capital platforms.
It was not until the 1990s that cross border equity capital flows for economic emergence evolved.
Those developing countries that believed in Bretton Woods, with only cross border debt, emergence was impossible.
Those developing countries that figured out the limitations of Bretton Woods - found their answers faster.
Equity Capital and creation of value - are required for cross border debt to be sustainable.
The same prerequisites in play - within developed economies.
QE so far is 100% Debt financed. Too much leverage, without debt free finance.
Helicopters needed at supersonic speed - before the boom turns into bust, indeed.
Val Samonis Apr 30, 2016

Growth will return where the Iron Law of Demography allows, e.g. China with 2 children policy or immigrant countries of the West. Europe is doomed as is Japan!
Godfree Roberts Apr 30, 2016

Statements like 'China is dealing with the aftereffects of prolonged fiscal expansion and explosive growth in its shadow banking system' and 'overinvestment (as in China' are misleading.
There are no particular problems with its shadow banking system. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-02-24/russian-bank-collapse-shines-light-on-risks-in-irish-shadows, and FSB’s ‘Global Shadow Banking Monitoring Report 2015’ http://www.fsb.org/wp-content/uploads/global-shadow-banking-monitoring-report-2015.pdf .
And, far from having problems with over investment, the Chinese are making out like bandidos with their investments (which is how they regard government debt). The St. Louis Fed reckons that the government's money is earning up to 200% returns over the terms of the bonds. St Louis Fed: https://research.stlouisfed.org/wp/2013/2013-013.pdf: "Is Government Spending a Free Lunch? -- Evidence from China – Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Working Paper.
Steve Hurst Apr 29, 2016

I've gotta say Simon you need to relax, lifes a beach
Steve Hurst Apr 29, 2016

The 'run on the bank' was in place well before 2008 in the epoch where leverage was low. It occurred in Gt Recession when leverage was high. You cannot ringfence the fallout. The only limited fail is a small bank and the global economy wants big. The ratios are probably secondary to behaviour which is linked to penalty and reward. I havent seen much action in the penalty box

http://prosyn.org/TwaPEAX/zh;

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