Jon Krause

Уравновешивание высокого уровня сбережений в Китае

ПЕКИН. Национальный уровень сбережений в Китае был очень высоким на протяжении последних несколько лет. В 2008 году (самый последний период, по которому имеются статистические данные) он составил 52% от ВВП и очень часто именно его обвиняют в сегодняшнем глобальном дисбалансе. Страны с высоким уровнем сбережений слишком много экспортируют, что, в соответствии с общепринятой точкой зрения, приводит к образованию активного торгового сальдо и увеличению резервов в иностранной валюте.

Однако такое утверждение не всегда является правильным. Например, я накопил 100 долларов и, одновременно, инвестировал 100 долларов в основные средства своей фабрики, таким образом, я «уравновесился» на внутреннем рынке и не создаю превышения экспорта над импортом.

Указанный пример отображает текущую экономическую ситуацию в Китае. В конце 2009 года и начале 2010 года уровень сбережений в Китае неизменно составлял 50% от ВВП и не привел к значительному сокращению торгового сальдо по сравнению с предыдущими годами. Фактически, Китай зарегистрировал внешнеторговый дефицит по части указанного периода, т.к. значительные инвестиции в основные средства (благодаря государственной политике стимулирования в начале глобального финансового кризиса) подтолкнули к повышению спроса на товары на внутреннем рынке, точно так же, как это сделали бы более высокие потребительские расходы.

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