Jon Krause

La Chine doit diminuer son taux d'épargne !

PEKIN – Depuis quelques années le taux d'épargne national de la Chine est très élevé (52% du PIB en 2008 selon les dernières statistiques disponibles), au point que beaucoup de critiques y voient l'origine des déséquilibres mondiaux actuels. On  pense généralement que les pays qui économisent trop exportent trop, avec pour conséquence un surplus commercial et l'augmentation des réserves en devises étrangères.

Mais ce n'est pas toujours le cas. Ainsi, si j'économise 100 euros et qu'en même temps j'investisse la même somme dans des actifs productifs pour mes usines, je suis en équilibre sur le plan intérieur et je ne crée pas de surplus commercial.

Cet exemple illustre la situation économique récente de la Chine. Fin 2009 et début 2010, le taux d'épargne chinois serait resté à 50% du PIB si son surplus commercial n'avait pas diminué. La Chine a même connu un déficit commercial durant une partie de cette période, car les investissements qu'elle a réalisés dans le domaine des actifs productifs (en raison de la politique de relance décidée par le gouvernement face à la crise financière mondiale) ont stimulé la demande intérieure.

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