Jon Krause

موازنة فرط الادخار في الصين

بكين ـ كان معدل الادخار الوطني في الصين مرتفعاً للغاية في الأعوام الأخيرة، حيث بلغ 52% من الناتج المحلي الإجمالي في عام 2008 (آخر الإحصائيات المتاحة)، وكثيراً ما توجه أصابع الاتهام إلى هذا المعدل المرتفع باعتباره السبب وراء اختلال التوازن العالمي اليوم. فالبلدان التي تُفرِط في الادخار تُفرِط أيضاً في التصدير طبقاً للرأي التقليدي، الأمر الذي يؤدي إلى ارتفاع الفوائض التجارية وتنامي الاحتياطيات من العملات الأجنبية.

ولكن هذا ليس صحيحاً دوماً. على سبيل المثال، إذا ادخرت مائة دولار ولكنني في الوقت عينه استثمرت مائة دولار في الأصول الثابتة لمصانعي، فهذا يعني أنني حققت "التوازن الداخلي" ولم أحقق أي فوائض في التصدير مع أي شخص.

إن هذا المثال يجسد الوضع الاقتصادي للصين مؤخرا. ففي أواخر عام 2009 وأوائل عام 2010 ربما كان معدل مدخرات الصين ليظل عند مستوى 50% من الناتج المحلي الإجمالي لو لم يتقلص فائضها التجاري بشكل ملحوظ مقارنة بالأعوام السابقة. بل إن الصين سجلت عجزاً تجارياً في جزء من هذه الفترة، حيث عمل ارتفاع معدلات الاستثمار في الأصول الثابتة (نتيجة لسياسات التحفيز التي تبنتها الحكومة في أعقاب الأزمة المالية العالمية) على تغذية الطلب المحلي على السلع بنفس الطريقة التي كان ليؤدي بها ارتفاع معدلات الإنفاق الاستهلاكي إلى نفس الشيء.

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