US Federal Reserve Brooks Kraft

Ақша-несие саясатының сценарийін қайта жазсақ

МЮНХЕН – Әлемнің ең ірі орталық банктері инфляцияны ауыздықтап, өсімді ұлғайту үшін қашанғы қатаң ережелерге сүйене бермек? Епті ақша-несие саясатының жақсы жақтарын ескере келе орталық банктер бейімделгіштікке де мән бере бастауы қажет.

Ақша-несие саясатын жасаушылардың қалыптасқан дәстүрі – егер инфляция ресми болжалған диапазоннан көп уақыт төмен тұрса, қысқа мерзімді пайыздық үстемелер шығындар мен инвестицияға серпін беретіндей деңгейде белгіленуі керек. Бұл тәсілдің ерекшелігі – пайыздық үстемелер нөлге жақындағанда орталық банктердің сұранысты арттыру үшін активтерді сатып алу бағдарламаларын іске қосудан басқа амалы қалмайды. Егер жағдай соған жетсе, саяси шешім қабылдаушылар жаңа Кейнс экономикалық моделі негізіндегі белгілі сценарийлер бойынша дефолт жариялайды.

Бірақ өте көп жағдайда бұл сценарийлер бізді шатастырады, себебі ақша-кредит саясатының сұраныс пен инфляцияға ықпалын өлшеуге және болжауға болады деп ойлайды. Бірақ бұл тұжырымды жоққа шығаратын себептер жеткілікті.

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