US Federal Reserve Brooks Kraft

Ein neues Drehbuch für die Geldpolitik

MÜNCHEN – Wie lange werden die großen Zentralbanken blindlings auf starre Regeln setzen, um die Inflation unter Kontrolle zu halten und das Wachstum anzukurbeln? Angesichts der klaren Vorteile einer beweglichen Geldpolitik müssen Notenbanker die Augen für die Möglichkeiten öffnen, die Flexibilität bietet.

Geldpolitische Entscheidungsträger gehorchen seit langem der Faustregel, dass die kurzfristigen Zinsen bei einer Inflation unterhalb des offiziellen Inflationsziels auf einem Niveau festzusetzen sind, das Konsum und Investitionen ankurbelt. Dieser Ansatz hat dazu geführt, dass den Zentralbanken, sobald die Zinssätze bei null oder nahe null Prozent liegen, kaum eine andere Möglichkeit bleibt, als große Ankaufprogramme für Anleihen zu starten, die die Nachfrage beleben sollen. Wenn es die Umstände erfordern, greift die Geldpolitik auf die vorgefertigten Drehbücher neokeynesianischer Wirtschaftsmodelle zurück.

Doch diese Drehbücher haben uns allzu oft vom rechten Weg abgebracht, denn sie gehen davon aus, dass die Geldpolitik eine messbare und vorhersehbare Auswirkung auf Nachfrage und Inflation hat. Viele Gründe sprechen dafür, diese Annahme in Frage zu stellen.

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