US Federal Reserve Brooks Kraft

إعادة كتابة سيناريو السياسة النقدية

ميونيخ ــ تُرى إلى متى قد تستمر البنوك المركزية الكبرى في الاعتماد على قواعد صارمة للسيطرة على التضخم وحفز النمو؟ نظرا للفوائد الواضحة المترتبة على السياسة النقدية الرشيقة الذكية، ينبغي لمحافظي البنوك المركزية أن ينتبهوا إلى الإمكانيات التي تتيحها المرونة.

كانت القاعدة الأساسية لصناع السياسات النقدية منذ زمن بعيد تتلخص في ضرورة تحديد أسعار الفائدة القصيرة الأجل عند مستوى يحفز الإنفاق والاستثمار ما دام التضخم أقل من نطاقات الهدف الرسمي. وكان هذا النهج يعني اضطرار البنوك المركزية بمجرد انخفاض أسعار الفائدة إلى الصِفر أو اقترابها منه إلى تفعيل برامج ضخمة لشراء الأصول والتي يفترض أن تحفز الطلب. وعندما تدعو الظروف إلى هذا، يذهب صناع السياسات بالضرورة إلى النصوص المحددة سلفا من النماذج الاقتصادية النيوكينزية (التي وضعها أتباع جون ماينارد كينز بعد الحرب العالمية الثانية).

ولكن هذه النصوص والكتابات ضللتنا في العديد من الحالات، لأنها تفترض أن السياسة النقدية تخلف تأثيرا يمكن التنبؤ به وقياسه على الطلب والتضخم. وهناك العديد من الأسباب التي تدعونا إلى التشكيك في هذا الافتراض.

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