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贸易战能被逆转吗?

发自伯克利——近期各国经济学家最常被问到的问题可能是:“贸易战是否已经开打了?”这可不是一个简单用“是”或“否”就能回答的问题。与打仗不同,各国政府都并未发表任何声明来宣示敌对行动的正式爆发。而关税这东西其实有史以来都不断基于各种原由——不管是好是坏——而起起落落的。

而即便是基于某些坏的理由,加关税并不一定会引起别国的报复。例如理查德·尼克松总统就曾在1971年宣布全面征收10%进口附加费,虽说此举违反了关税和贸易总协定(世界贸易组织的前身)和美国法律,但却并未遭致报复。

但事件总会有失控的时候。中国已经明确表示会回应美国的行为,从而提升了特朗普这位反复无常的美国领导人将事件升级的风险。由于中国对其早先行动的反应,特朗普在4月5日威胁要对另外价值1000亿美元的中国出口商品加征额外关税,这表明这一威胁正在升级。

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