Paul Lachine

¡Avanti Dilettanti!

BERLÍN – De regreso a Europa recientemente después de un viaje de seis días a Estados Unidos, me pregunté por primera vez, mientras leía lo que escribía la prensa sobre la reciente crisis irlandesa, si el euro –y por ende la Unión Europea- tenía posibilidades de sucumbir. Esto podría suceder porque, en el largo plazo, la UE no podrá sobrellevar sus conflictos de intereses y el proceso resultante de “renacionalización” en todos los estados miembro sin sufrir un daño grave.

En el ápice de la crisis irlandesa –principalmente una crisis de confianza en la estabilidad de los bancos y la fuerza y competencia del liderazgo político de Europa-, los líderes europeos discutían en público de manera bastante encarnizada. Si bien su objetivo manifiesto era salvar el euro, los líderes de gobierno involucrados hicieron exactamente lo contrario, lo que generó un mayor nerviosismo y volatilidad en los mercados financieros, que a su vez exacerbaron los problemas de Irlanda.

Alemania hizo su propio aporte para agravar la crisis al lanzar un debate público sobre la necesidad de que los bancos carguen con las pérdidas a partir de 2013. Por qué esta discusión tenía que tener lugar ahora, en el medio de la crisis irlandesa, sigue siendo el secreto de la canciller Angela Merkel. Lo más probable es que haya sido provocada únicamente por consideraciones políticas internas. De hecho, la exigencia de la participación de los bancos es popular en Alemania –y justificadamente-, a diferencia del paquete de rescate irlandés. Pero sería más productivo implementar una política de esas características que anunciarla con dos años de anticipación.

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