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Reaping the digital revolution’s benefits, and avoiding its pitfalls, will require the world to manage an unprecedented structural transformation for which it is woefully unprepared. A comprehensive investigation into the implications of the digital revolution is thus urgently needed.
发自伦敦——联合国每隔两年会发表一份对未来人口趋势的评估报告。而其2019年的预测中却展现出了明显的分野。整个亚洲,欧洲和美洲业已实现或即将实现人口数量稳定,中位数预测表明人口数量从今天的64亿增加到2100年时的65亿,仅增长2%。相比之下,联合国预计非洲人口将从13.4亿增加到42.8亿。
几十年后的人口趋势主要取决于对未来生育率的预测,而这些生育率是具有内在不确定性的。但是世界上所有发达经济体当前的生育模式已经持续了很长时间,似乎仍然会成为人类社会的一个稳定特征。
在所有经济发达国家,随着避孕手段日益增多且妇女逐渐借助教育以及更多参与正式劳动从而从家庭内部解放出来,生育率在十九世纪末至1920年代之间迅速下降。但当许多国家的生育率在两次世界大战之间下降到2以后,生育率在战后再次回升,在西欧和北欧地区达到2.4,在北美则稍高于3。
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