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What Lifted Trump Could Sink Biden

Dec 24, 2020 J. Bradford DeLong

Donald Trump managed to receive 74 million votes despite countless failures for the simple reason that he presided over three years of a high-pressure economy in which wages grew rapidly. If the Democrats ignore this lesson or listen to fiscal hawks already pushing for austerity, they will face a painful reckoning in 2024.

BERKELEY – Very few of the people who voted for US President Donald Trump in the 2020 election are plutocrats who benefited from his and congressional Republicans’ tax cut, or even wannabe plutocrats who can hope to benefit from it in the future. Some Trump voters doubtless are very focused on the installation of right-wing judges on the federal bench. But many among the 74 million who voted for Trump did so for other reasons.

The one reason most of them share, however, is that Trump presided during a period when the US economy delivered handsome wage increases for the typical American household. Before the COVID-19 pandemic – and the Trump administration’s utter failure to manage it – wages in the United States were growing faster than at any other time since Bill Clinton was president.

If the US economy fails to deliver similar wage increases over the next four years, those 74 million people (and probably more) will note the differential and vote in 2024 for Trump (if he runs again) or some other Trumpian Republican like Senator Tom Cotton of Arkansas or Senator Josh Hawley of Missouri.

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J. Bradford DeLong

Writing for PS since 2002
225 Commentaries

J. Bradford DeLong is Professor of Economics at the University of California at Berkeley and a research associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research. He was Deputy Assistant US Treasury Secretary during the Clinton Administration, where he was heavily involved in budget and trade negotiations. His role in designing the bailout of Mexico during the 1994 peso crisis placed him at the forefront of Latin America’s transformation into a region of open economies, and cemented his stature as a leading voice in economic-policy debates.

The Siren Song of Austerity
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The Siren Song of Austerity

J. Bradford DeLong worries that the most grievous economic-policy mistake of the last crisis is about to be repeated.

8
America’s New Debt Bomb
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America’s New Debt Bomb

Todd G. Buchholz draws parallels to the World War II era and proposes solutions for avoiding a fiscal cliff.

11
How Much Debt Is Too Much?
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How Much Debt Is Too Much?

Raghuram G. Rajan explains why today's abnormal financial conditions do not justify unlimited borrowing and spending.

29

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Wal Stir Dec 27, 2020

"with the prime-age employment-to-population ratio having ticked up to 77%"

Remember back to your school days and the students in your classes that never completed their assignments; never did their homework; never paid attention in class? Guess which group ends up comprising a significant portion of that 23%. By definition, half the population have 2-digit IQs - boosting the prime-age employment-to-population ratio from 75% to 100% would not increase the overall productivity of the workforce by a third.
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Wal Stir Dec 27, 2020

"Before the COVID-19 pandemic – and the Trump administration’s utter failure to manage it"

Covid-19 statistics are available here:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

The US has lower Covid-19 case and death rates per million than many other countries; so the failure cannot have been "total". Compare the rates within the various US states which are all under the same Trump administration:

Death rate per million:

Belgium: 1,650
U.S.A.: 1,025
New Jersey: 2,111
Vermont: 194
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