delong226_Spencer PlattGetty Images_trump rally

O que levantou Trump poderia afundar Biden

Dec 24, 2020 J. Bradford DeLong

BERKELEY – Muito poucas pessoas que votaram no presidente dos EUA Donald Trump na eleição de 2020 são plutocratas que se beneficiaram de seu corte de impostos e dos republicanos no Congresso, ou mesmo aspirantes a plutocratas que podem esperar se beneficiar dele no futuro. Alguns eleitores de Trump, sem dúvida, estão muito focados na indicação de juízes de direita na bancada federal. Mas muitos entre os 74 milhões que votaram em Trump o fizeram por outros motivos.

A única razão da qual a maioria deles compartilha, no entanto, é que Trump foi presidente durante um período em que a economia dos Estados Unidos proporcionou consideráveis aumentos salariais para a típica família americana. Antes da pandemia do COVID-19 – e do absoluto fracasso do governo Trump em administrá-la – os salários nos Estados Unidos cresciam mais rápido do que em qualquer outro momento desde que Bill Clinton foi presidente.

Se a economia dos EUA não conseguir gerar aumentos salariais semelhantes nos próximos quatro anos, esses 74 milhões de pessoas (e provavelmente mais) perceberão o diferencial e em 2024 votarão em Trump (se ele concorrer novamente) ou algum outro republicano trumpiano como o senador Tom Cotton de Arkansas ou o senador Josh Hawley de Missouri.

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J. Bradford DeLong

Writing for PS since 2002
226 Commentaries

J. Bradford DeLong is Professor of Economics at the University of California at Berkeley and a research associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research. He was Deputy Assistant US Treasury Secretary during the Clinton Administration, where he was heavily involved in budget and trade negotiations. His role in designing the bailout of Mexico during the 1994 peso crisis placed him at the forefront of Latin America’s transformation into a region of open economies, and cemented his stature as a leading voice in economic-policy debates.

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Todd G. Buchholz draws parallels to the World War II era and proposes solutions for avoiding a fiscal cliff.

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Wal Stir Dec 27, 2020

"with the prime-age employment-to-population ratio having ticked up to 77%"

Remember back to your school days and the students in your classes that never completed their assignments; never did their homework; never paid attention in class? Guess which group ends up comprising a significant portion of that 23%. By definition, half the population have 2-digit IQs - boosting the prime-age employment-to-population ratio from 75% to 100% would not increase the overall productivity of the workforce by a third.
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Wal Stir Dec 27, 2020

"Before the COVID-19 pandemic – and the Trump administration’s utter failure to manage it"

Covid-19 statistics are available here:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

The US has lower Covid-19 case and death rates per million than many other countries; so the failure cannot have been "total". Compare the rates within the various US states which are all under the same Trump administration:

Death rate per million:

Belgium: 1,650
U.S.A.: 1,025
New Jersey: 2,111
Vermont: 194
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