Pandemie přísnosti

NEW YORK – Na letošních jarních zasedáních Mezinárodního měnového fondu a Světové banky ve Washingtonu MMF vybídl evropské země, aby uvolnily politiky fiskální přísnosti a zaměřily se na investice, čímž se zřetelně odklonil od dřívější rétoriky. Na chodbách obou multilaterálních institucí se však hovořilo o dvojím metru.

Ve skutečnosti většina zemí veřejné výdaje osekává – s podporou MMF. Přestože tedy některé severní země začínají recept přísných úspor zpochybňovat, jejich kolegové na jihu (včetně jihoevropských zemí) rostoucí měrou zavádějí fiskálně korekční opatření.

Ze 119 vlád, které v současnosti zmenšují své rozpočty (ve vztahu k HDP), jsou podle odhadů MMF tři čtvrtiny v rozvojových zemích (jedná se o 21 zemí s nízkými příjmy a 68 zemí se středními příjmy). Fiskální konsolidace postihuje podle odhadů 80 % občanů rozvojových zemí a očekává se, že její dopady budou do konce roku 2015 postupně sílit. Rozsah kontrakce během tohoto období bude značný, přičemž zhruba u čtvrtiny všech rozvojových zemí se očekává, že osekají výdaje pod předkrizové úrovně.

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