¿Weimar 2013?

NUEVA YORK – La peor crisis del capitalismo desde la Gran Depresión de la década de 1930 ha reavivado en ambos lados del Atlántico terribles recuerdos del pasado. El fantasma de Franklin Delano Roosevelt ronda por los Estados Unidos de Barack Obama. Argumentos históricos referidos a la efectividad del New Deal de FDR ocupan buena parte del debate estadounidense sobre la actual política monetaria y fiscal, en general, y la política de flexibilización cuantitativa de la Reserva Federal de los Estados Unidos, en particular.

En Europa, ya ha ocurrido una vez que el fracaso de las economías nacionales condujera al derrumbe de la democracia, y la gente se pregunta si puede volver a ocurrir. Hay quien ve en la situación actual parecidos con la República de Weimar, reminiscencias de las penurias económicas y el desempleo rampante que caracterizaron a la Alemania de Heinrich Brüning y facilitaron el ascenso de los nazis al poder.

Pero a primera vista, los argumentos en contra parecen aplastantes. Si algo hizo la Unión Europea fue lograr que una guerra entre Francia y Alemania sea inimaginable. Es decir que el contexto geopolítico general es mucho menos amenazante que en la década de 1930.

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