فايمار 2013؟

نيويورك ــ كان اندلاع أسوأ أزمة تواجهها الرأسمالية منذ أزمة الكساد الأعظم في ثلاثينيات القرن العشرين سبباً في إيقاظ ذكريات كئيبة على جانبي الأطلسي. والآن يطارد شبح فرانكلين ديلانو روزفلت الولايات المتحدة في عهد باراك أوباما. وتشكل الحجج التاريخية حول ما إذا كانت صفقة فرانكلين روزفلت الجديدة قد نجحت أو لم تنجح جزءاً مهماً من المناقشات الأميركية حول السياسة النقدية والمالية الحالية بشكل عام، وسياسة التيسير الكمي التي يتبناها بنك الاحتياطي الفيدرالي الأميركي بشكل خاص.

وفي أوروبا، حيث أدى فشل الاقتصاد الوطني ذات يوم إلى انهيار الديمقراطية ذاتها، يتساءل الناس الآن ما إذا كان ذلك قد يتكرر. والبعض يرى لحظة فايمار أخرى، وهو ما يذكرنا بفترة ربط الحزام وارتفاع معدلات البطالة في ألمانيا أيام هاينريش برونينج، والتي ساعدت في وصول النازيين إلى السلطة.

وللوهلة الأولى، تبدو أسباب رفض هذا السيناريو ساحقة. فإذا كان الاتحاد الأوروبي قد أفاد بأي شكل من الأشكال فهو أنه جعل الحرب بين فرنسا وألمانيا احتمالاً لا يمكن تصوره. وبالتالي فإن السياق الجيوسياسي بالكامل أصبح أقل تهديداً مما كان عليه في ثلاثينيات القرن العشرين.

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