Реализм в отношении мер строгой экономии и долга

КЕМБРИДЖ. Многие, если не все, из наиболее актуальных макроэкономических проблем в мире связаны с массивными грузами всех видов долгов. В Европе токсичное сочетание государственных банковских и внешних долгов периферийных стран угрожает расшатать еврозону. По другую сторону Атлантики противостояние между демократами, Чайной партией и республиканцами старой закалки привнесло небывалую неопределенность в отношении того, как Соединенные Штаты будут сокращать  дефицит бюджета в размере 8 % от ВВП в долгосрочной перспективе. Тем временем, Япония работает в условиях 10-процентного дефицита бюджета от ВВП, даже учитывая то, что растущая когорта новых пенсионеров переключается с покупки японских облигаций на их продажу.

Что же кроме заламывания рук могут сделать правительства? Одной крайностью являются упрощенные кейнсианские методы, предполагающие, что дефицит государственного бюджета не имеет значения в момент, когда экономика находится в глубокой рецессии, и даже более того – чем он больше, тем лучше. На противоположном краю находятся долговые абсолютисты (сторонники ограничения долга), которые хотят, чтобы власти начали балансировать свои бюджеты завтра (если не вчера). Обе точки зрения крайне опасно поверхностны.

Долговые абсолютисты грубо недооценивают неизбежные затраты на проведение добровольной «внезапной остановки» в финансировании долгов. А эти затраты и приводят к тому, что нуждающиеся страны, такие как Греция, сталкиваются с массовыми социально-экономическими сдвигами, когда финансовые рынки теряют доверие, а потоки капитала внезапно иссякают.

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