Una crescita austera?

WASHINGTON – La reazione del governo tedesco all’appello del neoeletto Presidente francese François Hollande a favore di politiche orientate alla crescita sta a indicare l’intenzione di non apportare alcun cambiamento ai programmi di austerità nell’eurozona. Le misure di sostegno alla crescita, tra cui ulteriori prestiti da parte della Banca Europea per gli Investimenti o l’emissione di project bond garantiti congiuntamente per finanziare investimenti specifici, potrebbero essere tutt’al più “un’aggiunta” a questi programmi.

Molti sia all’interno che all’esterno della Germania dichiarano che sono necessarie sia austerità che crescita, e che un’enfasi maggiore sulla crescita non dovrebbe per forza implicare una riduzione delle misure di austerità. Il dramma dell’attuale crisi dell’eurozona ha focalizzato l’attenzione sull’Europa, ma è in realtà il modo in cui verrà messo in atto proprio in Europa il dibattito su crescita e austerità ad essere molto più rilevante, persino per gli Stati Uniti.

Bisogna stabilire tre punti fondamentali. Innanzitutto, in un contesto di disoccupazione elevata e di eccesso di capacità, la produzione a breve termine è determinata principalmente dalla domanda e non dall’offerta, Nei paesi membri dell’eurozona, è possibile mantenere solo la politica fiscale a livello nazionale in quanto la Banca Centrale Europea ha il controllo della politica monetaria. E’ vero, pertanto, che una crescita immediata necessita una riduzione più lenta del deficit fiscale.

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