Atlas se hroutí

Má-li se svět dočkat řádného hospodářského oživení, vzestup bude záviset na tom, zda se Amerika postaví na nohy a bude opět plnit roli poslední instance mezi světovými dovozci. Žádná jiná země nebude schopná promazat stroj světové ekonomiky, začne-li americké hospodářství skřípat. Objevuje se jistý optimismus, že se zotaví Japonsko, ale uplynulou nesmírně neuspokojivou dekádou se mihlo až příliš mnoho pseudooživení, která měla být zdrojem obdobných nadějí.

Zdá se, že Evropa zklame též. Předpovědi evropského růstu nadále opadávají, a přesto vyhlídky vládní politiky hovoří o omezování výdajů a vyšších daních, neboť se začíná projevovat fiskální Pakt stability a růstu. Navíc vypadá bezmocně Evropská centrální banka, protože má svázané ruce dobrovolně zavedenými mantinely inflačního cíle. A nově vznikající trhy nejsou ještě dostatečně velké, aby hrály významnější roli v bilanci světové poptávky.

Amerika tedy zůstává poslední rozumnou nadějí světového hospodářství. To je ale znepokojivé ze dvou důvodů. Zaprvé Amerika nemůže navždy fungovat s obrovským (a stále rostoucím!) deficitem obchodní bilance: v určitém okamžiku musí chuť zahraničních investorů držet stále větší podíl svého majetku v Americe opadnout a pak se změnit v nechuť. Jakmile k tomu dojde, dolar padne a bude konec pobídkám, které světu dodává americká poptávka po dovozu.

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