John Overmyer

أثينا، الصين

بكين ـ في حين تتعامل أجزاء من العالم مع تداعيات الأزمة المالية أو مع أزمة الديون السيادية الناشئة، فإن الصين تحاول التغلب على المخاطر المرتبطة باحتمالات فرط النشاط الاقتصادي والتضخم و/أو نشوء فقاعات الأصول.

ولعل العديد من العوامل تدفع اقتصاد الصين في هذا الاتجاه. والواقع أن أكثر هذه العوامل إثارة للقلق والانزعاج هو نفس العامل الذي أشعل الأزمة الحالية في منطقة اليورو: الديون العامة السريعة النمو. ففي منطقة اليورو تتعلق المشكلة بالديون السيادية للبلدان الأعضاء؛ وفي الصين تدور المشكلة حول الاقتراض المرتبط بالحكومات المحلية.

في منطقة اليورو يُعَد نظام الرعاية الاجتماعية المتضخم، وخاصة مع تزايد أعداد المتقاعدين بسرعة كبيرة والتباطؤ الاقتصادي الناتج عن الأزمة المالية، من العناصر الرئيسية في مشكلة الديون البنيوية. وفي الصين لجأ المسؤولون المحليون إلى زيادة الاقتراض من أجل ضمان بقاء معدلات النمو الاقتصادي في مناطقهم عند مستوى 10% أو أكثر.

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