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美国会出什么问题?

美国剑桥—尽管美国经济情况不错——已经达到了事实上的充分就业,通胀率也接近2%——但充满不确定性的世界仍然值得我们考虑未来一年可能出现哪些状况。毕竟,如果美国经济陷入大麻烦,就会对欧洲、日本和其他许多国家造成负面影响。

当然,经济问题可能源自国际政治事件。俄罗斯一直在东欧和中欧玩火。中国在东海和南海的领土主张及其在大东亚的政策正在增加地区不确定性。意大利的情况可能让欧元区陷入危机。

但在美国国内,最大的风险是资产价格暴跌,这将累及家庭和企业,导致总需求崩塌。我并没有在预测会发生这样的情况。但随着资产价格涨势越来越脱离历史常态,情况也变得越来越危险。

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