With surging inflation and a new war in Europe, the first half of 2022 was understandably gloomy for economies and financial markets around the world. But recent developments offer some hope that the prevailing pessimism may no longer be as warranted as it was a few months ago.
gives four reasons for questioning whether economic forecasters' current pessimism is still justified.
发自新加坡—美国联邦储备局货币政策的鹰派转向往往会加大新兴经济体的金融和经济压力。1990年代初美联储猝然调高利率以抑制通货膨胀的做法引发了1994年墨西哥“龙舌兰”危机。2013年美联储发出了希望收紧货币政策的信号,又触发了被称为“缩减恐慌”的主要新兴市场抛售。
考虑到该地区的过往经历,人们可能会预期东盟+3国家——东南亚国家联盟的10个成员加上中国(包括香港)、日本和韩国——的政策制定者们会对美联储的日益鹰派感到尤为焦虑。事实上,美联储最近为遏制持续高位通胀所做的努力已经引发了对区域金融危机的担忧——类似于1997年的亚洲金融危机。
但美联储当前行动对该地区的影响并不会像1990年代末那样大。当今的东盟+3经济体已经变得更强大也更耐扛,大大降低了发生1997年式金融崩溃的可能性。
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