Comments 8

亚洲的美国威胁

Apr 25, 2017 Brahma Chellaney

新德里—美国总统特朗普的外交政策方针主要以策略和交易，而不是战略愿景为基础，这造成了一系列冲突。由于缺少指导性定策，遑论明确的重点，特朗普让美国盟友和战略伙伴感到无所适从——特别是在亚洲——这影响到了地区安全。

平心而论，特朗普做了一些拨乱反正，让他更加接近于传统美国立场。特别是他宣布北约“不再过时”，改变了选战期间的口风。这一变化让美国与欧洲的关系有所缓和。

但在面临严重安全、政治和经济挑战的亚洲，特朗普的反覆只能加剧地区动荡。该地区布满了政治火药桶，稍有不慎就会引起暴力冲突，亚洲领导人最不希望看到的正是战略随心所欲。

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Cary Fraser May 2, 2017

Following the 1939-45 war, the international system had to be restructured and decolonization ensued within the Cold War context. The Bandung Conference opened the path to Non-Alignment and the search to escape the confines of the Cold War.
It was evident that the collapse of the Cold War order would provoke a similar process and the international order is undergoing a prolonged crisis of succession. A generation of leaders who have escaped the intellectual legacies of the Cold War will be required to reshape the current international order.
Again, the Asian states will have to provide the leadership to an alternative order.
- Cary Fraser May 2, 2017
  
  Correction: "Again, the Asian states will have to provide the leadership to forge a path to an alternative order."
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David Lloyd-Jones May 1, 2017

It's worth remembering that Korea is not "a country," nor are its important divisions the one along the 38th parallel.

It is an uneasy alliance of three different peoples far more suspicious of each other than Irish and English, or English and Scots, or the Welsh and everybody else. The last time we saw this was when the father of the recently deposed President was dictator, back in the 1970's. There was a student uprising in the South, which I watched in horror on TV in Japan: the police attacks on the students was ver-ree clearly an expression of racial hatred by their own standards.

Thus to see the Communists in Pyongyang holding the South hostage against both Trump and Xi is to see more than just chess-playing, or baduk. This is medieval hatreds on the board.
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j. von Hettlingen Apr 30, 2017

Brahma Chellaney fears that Trump's flip-flops in his approach to foreign policy in Asia could jeopardise the security in the region. What aggravates him is Trump's change of heart in dealing with Beijing - from China bashing to singing the praises of Xi Jinping. During his election campaign Trump called China the “world champions” of currency manipulation. Today he calls Xi his buddy, saying they "like each other" and "have a great chemistry together.”
The author, an Indian scholar, says Trump has made a mistake and shouldn't have softened his stance on China, which now feels emboldened to advance its various interest. Beijing has been embroiled in territorial disputes with littoral countries of the South China Sea, and in a border dispute with India, with which it had fought a war in 1962. India has been following Xi Jinping's New Silk Road project with deep concern, as China has forged close ties with Sri Lanka and Pakistan - India's arch enemy for decades. Relations between Beijing and Delhi have frayed in recent month over Dalai Lama's visit to Arunachal Pradesh in north India, parts of which China claims.
It's true that "the most consistent feature of Trump’s foreign policy is his obsession with gaining short-term advantage," because he lacks the political acumen and experience for long-term strategy in geopolitics. Apart from the three sensible generals in his circle, he doesn't have seasoned diplomats and foreign policy wonks to advise him. The author says, North Korea has emerged suddenly "as Trump’s main foreign-policy challenge." It is not that "sudden." Obama did warn Trump that North Korea would be his first major security threat. While Tillerson said in March that US "strategic patience" under Obama were over, many fear it "could well be replaced by a more accident-prone policy of strategic tetchiness" under his successor.
The author questions Trump's reliance on China to rein in North Korea's nuclear ambition. "After all, North Korea has lately been seeking to escape China’s clutches and pursue direct engagement with the US." Or conversely, Trump is seeking to reach out to North Korea. In January 2016 he praised Kim Jong-un and was impressed by how the young dictator brutally "wiped out" people, including relatives. "You gotta give him credit," Trump said. Speaking to CBS today, he said Kim was "a smart cookie," assuming power at a young age, despite dealing with "some very tough people". It remains to be seen whether this compliment would lead to any action from Pyongyang.
As Kim has never met Xi, despite his grandfather's deep ties with China since the Korean War, perhaps Trump should do what Nixon did in 1972 - rapprochement with China. He could fulfil his campaign pledge by inviting Kim to Disney Land and meeting with him "over a hamburger." The author says, while the North Korean "nuclear genie /is/ already out of the bottle, denuclearization may no longer be a plausible option. But a nuclear freeze could still be negotiated."
If Trump could succeed, he would have an enormous leverage over the Korean Peninsula. The reason why China is so hesistant to punish the unruly Kim is the fear of a regime collapse, which would trigger an influx of North Korean refugees into China. South Korea would seize the opportunity to unify with the North, which has thus far served as a buffer state between China and America's ally, in the South. Beijing doesn't entertain the idea of having US troops directly on its border after the unification of the two Koreas.
The meeting Xi and Trump had four weeks ago in Florida was "great", and it may help the Chinese president consolidate power, when the Chinese Communist Party’s 19th National Congress meets later this year to select the next generation of new leaders. Although Trump's promise to “Make America Great Again” is antithetical to Xi’s “Chinese dream” of “rejuvenating the Chinese nation,” both are nationalists and "run the risk that their core interests will be used as bargaining chips." In this regard, nobody knows how long the chemistry between Trump and Xi will last. The author fears this situation will only "stoke greater anxiety among America’s allies and partners" across Asia.
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Chris Jones Apr 26, 2017

Mr. Trump encouraged allies in Europe and Asia to unite in defending our allied interests and to meet their financial obligations to that cause. I suspect that Mr. Xi does not relish the demise of North Korea as the Soviet Union did not want the Berlin Wall to fall and resulting in political and economic freedom. He may not have much of a choice. His people have come to enjoy a lifestyle similar to South Koreans and they surely do not want to maintain outdated repressive, political regimes like North Korea's.
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Mahendra Sharma Apr 26, 2017

Trump's a Chump, in search of His own yet elusive proverbial Banana. Trump's merits or the lack of it is best left for Americans to brood over. India retains the Right of Play as suiting its broader stability & interests & nor does it lacks suitable alternates. Also a more crazy Trump policies merely attests to a stronger Indian role & play as more 'n more Nations would need to find an alternate not so much for US But more so to face Chinese shenanigans. US merely is a dispensable means & not so much an end both for India & the Region.
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Ariel Tejera Apr 26, 2017

Yet, Trump has leaned heavily on military people for the top positions of his Administration. People who, obviously, is not trained to negotiate much with adversaries, or challenge authority for that matter. Trump people. Who thrive amidst chaous. The revolution is on, man.
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Nicolas Cornejo Apr 25, 2017

This is wrong on various levels, but the same issue is this: Can 'Murica do what Brahma wants? or is really Asia China's playground now? Well, that is far from clear. If Obama and now Trump allows Xi to do what he wants, maybe is because they can't do nothing about it.
Writers like Brahma forget that this is not 1970, and that China is the second most important country in the world. It is only logical that it defies US hegemony. And it is only logical that the US, that tried to police the world the past 25 years and overextended their military, cannot do much.
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Bernhard Kopp Apr 25, 2017

It appears that China wants a more dominant role in East Asia. This will hardly be in the interest of Japan or South Korea, among others. Will China make any decisive steps to reign in Kim/North Korea without any gain in the region ?
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亚洲的美国威胁

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