Hong Kong Marco Wong/Getty Images

让亚洲的储蓄为亚洲做贡献

香港—三十多年来,亚洲比其他地区经济增长更快。亚洲在发展成长的过程中,一方面通过对美国的贸易盈余输出其储蓄;另一方面又借助纽约和伦敦以直接投资与股票组合投资等形式重新将资本输回亚洲。这一跨境迂回投资过程制造了严重但基本被忽视的地缘金融紧张局面。

2015年年底,中国、香港、日本、韩国、新加坡和台湾的净对外资产头寸之和达到了7.3万亿美元——几乎正好等于美国的净国际投资负债。这一失衡不可能在短期内消失。事实上,美国的净对外投资负债最近又有所增长——到2016年9月底达到了7.8 万亿美元,主要原因是美国持续的经常项目赤字和汇率效应导致的净负债扩大。

亚洲国家为什么不把自己的储蓄投资于本地区?一个显而易见的原因是美国主导着全球金融,特别是在股权投资和货币市场。在一篇2005年的论文中,皮埃尔-奥利佛·古林查斯(Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas)和伊莲·雷(Hélène Rey)指出,曾经是世界的银行家的美国,已经变成了世界的风险资本家,展开国际股权及债券投资,特别是在亚洲,而不只是银行借贷。

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