Die Zukunft Asiens nach dem Tsunami

Das Ausmaß der durch die schrecklichen Tsunamis in Asien ausgelösten menschlichen Tragödien, kann gar nicht unterschätzt werden. Familienmitglieder starben, Häuser wurden zerstört und Existenzen ruiniert. Und wie so oft bei Naturkatastrophen traf es die Armen am schwersten.

Und trotz aller Schäden an der Infrastruktur wie Straßen und Eisenbahnen ist zu erwarten, dass die allgemeinen wirtschaftlichen Auswirkungen des Tsunamis gering sein werden. In den am schlimmsten betroffenen Teilen Indiens, Indonesiens, Sri Lankas und Thailands blieb das unmittelbare Landesinnere verschont. Der Tourismus und die Fischerei – die Lebensadern der zerstörten Küstenregionen – machen nur einen geringen Anteil am BIP dieser Länder aus, da Liberalisierungen zu ökonomischer Diversifizierung und raschem Wachstum geführt haben.

Das war nicht immer so. Historisch betrachtet war es schwierig die Asiaten davon zu überzeugen, dass der internationale Handel kein Nullsummenspiel ist und Asien der unweigerliche Verlierer. Das ist ein Grund warum nach dem Triumph der Kommunisten Mao Tse-tungs in China im Jahr 1949 und der Unabhängigkeit anderer asiatischer Nationen, die meisten asiatischen Länder eine nach innen gerichtete Wirtschaftspolitik verfolgten, die darauf abzielte, innere Stärke und Eigenständigkeit zu erlangen und die „Imperialisten“ draußen zu halten.

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