亚洲新轴心

发自首尔——中日韩三国领导人已经在上个月达成共识,同意在今年晚些时候启动与一项三边自由贸易有关的协议。一旦该谈判取得成功,全球贸易版图都将被改写。这项包含世界第二大,第三大和第十二大经济体(以2011年购买力平价计算),覆盖15亿人口的自由贸易协议将使欧盟以及涵盖美国,加拿大和墨西哥的北美自由贸易区相形见拙。

事实上,东北亚将成为继欧盟和北美自贸区之后全球区域经济整合的第三个主要轴心。但迄今为止,该区域都未能实现像欧洲和北美那样强大的制度化经济合作。如果上个月在北京讨论的方案能够实现的话,因此产生的自贸协议将在整合程度以及对世界经济的重要性方面超越北美自贸协议。

此外,中日韩自贸协议将很可能引发一个连锁反应。例如这股势头可能会向南发展并刺激与三国都分别签订有自贸协议的东南亚联盟加入这个更大的自贸协议。而这样的事件将等同于建立一个东亚自由贸易区——正如“东盟+3”会议在十年前设想的那样。如能实现这一点,其他国家——澳大利亚,新西兰,以及最重要的:印度——都会尝试投入这股大潮之中。

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