Asiens neues Wachstumsmodell

MAILAND: Angeführt von Asien, ist der auf die Schwellenmärkte entfallende Anteil der Weltwirtschaft in den letzten Jahrzehnten stetig gewachsen. Für die Länder Asiens – insbesondere seine aufstrebenden Giganten China und Indien – ist nachhaltiges Wachstum nicht länger Teil einer globalen Herausforderung; stattdessen ist es eine Frage der nationalen Wachstumsstrategie geworden. Dies stellt eine grundlegende Veränderung innerhalb der globalen Struktur der Anreize dar, Nachhaltigkeit zu erreichen.

Während der nächsten Jahrzehnte werden Energieverbrauch, Urbanisierung, Kfz-Nutzung und Kohlenstoffemissionen fast nur in den Schwellenländern zunehmen. Bis zur Mitte des Jahrhunderts wird die Zahl der Menschen, die in den (dann) einkommensstarken Ländern leben, auf 4,5 Milliarden ansteigen – heute sind es eine Milliarde. Das weltweite BIP, das derzeit bei etwa 60 Billionen Dollar liegt, wird sich in den nächsten 30 Jahren mindestens verdreifachen.

Sollten die Schwellenländer versuchen, das Einkommensniveau der hoch entwickelten Länder zu erreichen, indem sie in etwa demselben Muster folgen wie ihre Vorgänger, wären die Auswirkungen auf die natürlichen Ressourcen und die Umwelt enorm, riskant und vermutlich katastrophal. Einer oder mehrere Kipp-Punkte dürften den Prozess jäh zum Halten bringen. Die Sicherheit und Bezahlbarkeit der Energieversorgung, Luft- und Wasserqualität, das Klima, die Ökosysteme an Land und in den Ozeanen, die Sicherheit der Lebensmittelversorgung und vieles weitere wären bedroht.

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