Asiens Inflationsfalle

NEW HAVEN – Asien hat ein Inflationsproblem. Je eher es sein Problem in den Griff bekommt, desto besser. Leider fehlt das angemessene Dringlichkeitsbewusstsein.

Die Bereitschaft, die Inflation anzugehen, wird dadurch behindert, dass Asien stark auf Exporte und die Auslandsnachfrage angewiesen ist. Aufgrund ihrer Angst vor einem erneuten Rückgang der Endmarktnachfrage in einer immer noch unsicheren Welt nach der Krise widerstrebt es den politischen Entscheidungsträgern Asiens, aggressiv für Preisstabilität einzutreten. Das muss sich ändern – bevor es zu spät ist.

Mit Ausnahme von Japan, das weiterhin in einer scheinbar chronischen Deflation steckt, ist die asiatische Inflation in den 12 Monaten bis November 2010 auf 5,3 % geklettert, ein deutlicher Anstieg gegenüber der Inflationsrate von 3,5 % ein Jahr zuvor. Die Trends in den beiden Riesen der Region sind besonders besorgniserregend: In China hat die Inflation die 5%-Schwelle durchbrochen und in Indien liegt sie bei über 8 %. Beunruhigend sind auch die Preisanstiege in Indonesien (7 %), Singapur (3,8 %), Korea (3,5 %) und Thailand (3 %).

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