Азиатская модель экономического роста все еще существует

Оглядываясь в прошлое, что всегда считается полезным, хоть иногда и приводит в замешательство, легко заметить, что структура и характер экономического роста, имевшего место в разных странах на протяжении второй половины двадцатого века, были мало понятны экономистам и практически непредсказуемы. В 1960-годы, например, когда как раз начинался взлет "экономических тигров" в Азии, лауреат Нобелевской премии Гуннар Мюрдаль написал свою «Азиатскую драму», в которой постарался определить причины бедности в Азии и объяснить, почему эта бедность кажется неискоренимой.

В то же самое время экономисты и разработчики экономической стратегии пришли к твердому согласию относительно поддержки политики замещения импорта, проводимой тогда многими странами, включая Индию, Аргентину, Бразилию, Египет и Турцию. Сегодня, после разорения всех ее сторонников, считается, что такая экономическая политика полностью дискредитировала себя.

Важный момент в данном случае заключается не столько в том, что экономисты оказались не правы в стольких вопросах, сколько в том, что практически никто не оказался прав. Возьмем, например, феноменальный экономический рост Тайваня. Его никто не предсказывал. Экономическое «чудо» Японии, фактически, оставалось незамеченным экономистами до тех пор, пока Норман Мэкри из журнала «Экономист» не опубликовал в 1962 году свою статью «Взгляд на Японию», положившую начало огромному количеству работ по данному вопросу.

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