L’Inde et la Chine : une relation spéciale et fragile

NEW DELHI – « Tzeu Ch’in dit à Tzeu Koung : … Notre Maître obtient ce qu’il veut des autres en étant cordial, franc, courtois, modéré et humble. Telle est notre… voie ». Le Premier ministre chinois Wen Jiabao se montrera-t-il à la hauteur de ces préceptes, tels que décrits dans les Analectes de Confucius, lors de sa visite actuelle en Inde ?

Le monde diplomatique se caractérise par une multitude de « relations spéciales ». Le partenariat des États-Unis avec le Royaume-Uni, forgé au cours des deux guerres mondiales, est l’un des pilier de l’Occident depuis plus d’un demi siècle. La rivalité entre les Etats-Unis et l’Union soviétique pendant la Guerre froide était une relation spéciale en ce sens qu’elle a façonné le destin du monde jusqu’à l’effondrement de l’URSS. Et il semble qu’une nouvelle relation spéciale soit en train de se former entre les Etats-Unis et la Chine.

Mais si l’on se penche sur l’avenir de l’Asie – et en fait, sur l’avenir de la diplomatie internationale – c’est davantage la relation entre les deux nations les plus peuplées de la Terre et les principales économies émergentes, l’Inde et la Chine, qui définira de plus en plus l’ordre du jour mondial. La nouvelle orientation militaire du Japon, la première révision de sa doctrine  depuis le début de la Guerre froide – et qui fait implicitement de la Chine sa principale menace – laisse à penser que les autorités chinoises doivent évaluer avec soin leur stratégie régionale globale.

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