Barrie Maguire

طريق اسيا الصعب

مانيلا – ان العام القادم سوف ينطوي على تحديات كبيرة ومسؤوليات جديدة-سياسية واقتصادية واجتماعية-  لقارة اسيا النامية . ان الطريق الى نمو اقتصادي مستدام وشامل سوف يكون صعبا ولكنه سوف ينطوي على فرص مثيرة للاهتمام لاسيا وبقية العالم .

بعد خمس سنوات من بداية الكساد العظيم فإن استعادة الانتعاش الاقتصادي ما يزال بعيد المنال في الاقتصادات المتقدمة. يجب على قادة اوروبا اتخاذ قرارات صعبة من اجل حل ازمة اليورو واحياء النمو وبالرغم من ان هناك اشارات على استعادة الانتعاش الاقتصادي في الولايات المتحدة الامريكية فإنها ما تزال تعاني من مأزق سياسي فيما يتعلق بما يطلق عليه "حافة المنحدر المالي" . ان من الممكن ان الاشارات الرئيسة تبدو أقوى مقارنة بالعام الماضي لكن المخاطر زادت .

أما في اسيا فإن الحصافة المالية سمحت باجراءات الحفز والتي كانت مطلوبة من اجل احياء النمو الاقتصادي العالمي سنة 2010 لكن التحول الاقتصادي الذي حصل خلال العقود الماضية قد وصل الى مفترق طرق . بالرغم من وجود اقتصادات قليلة ذات دخل منخفض تحاول اللحاق بالاخرين فإن من غير المرجح ان تستمر سنوات نمو الناتج المحلي الاجمالي بنسب تتجاوز التسعة بالمائة – وخاصة في الصين والهند- وذلك بسبب البيئة الخارجية المتواضعة مع وجود ضعف داخلي.

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