Dean Rohrer

Le duel du duopole de l’Asie

TOKYO – Il y a aujourd’hui en Asie deux puissances économiques de niveau international : le Japon et la Chine. Mais l’équilibre de puissance économique entre les deux est en train de changer. Tôt ou tard cette année, le PIB de la Chine dépassera celui du Japon (si cela n’est pas déjà le cas). A cela s’ajoute le fait que l’empreinte économique de la Chine se répand rapidement à travers l’Asie et au reste du monde.

La plupart des pays asiatiques se remettent très bien de la récession globale qui s’est installée à la suite de la chute de Lehman Brothers en 2008. Le taux de croissance de la Chine l’année dernière était 8,7%, et il est de plus de 10% depuis le début de cette année. Les pays voisins, comme la Corée du Sud et Singapour, connaissent eux aussi de forts taux de croissance. La seule exception est le Japon, où le manque de pouvoir politique et le manque de connaissances en économie des ministres du gouvernement sapent les perspectives de croissance.

Alors que la capacité de la Chine à maintenir une croissance élevée malgré le choc Lehman représente un remarquable exploit de gestion économique, trois importants changements en Chine ont des implications géopolitiques pour la région et le monde.  

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