Paul Lachine

碰壁的亚洲金砖国家

发自新德里——美国学者弗朗西斯·福山在二十多年前预言了“历史的终结”,认为人类将最终走向自由民主制度,但却对作为印度经济增长催化剂的民主制度印象不佳。相反,他在印度看到了大范围的“庇护政治和顽固作风”——而这些缺点恰恰与中国那种更具效率(但也谈不上廉洁)的政治系统形成鲜明对比。

但现实却与他的观点有些出入。中国的地方政府在基建狂潮中欠下了堆积如山的债务,使人不得不忧心其潜在的债务违约风险。连中国国家总理温家宝自己都承认必须尽快解决本国的不公平发展问题,呼吁设法“公平分配财富”,并以此弥补“夫人和穷人之间,城市和农村之间”不断扩大的贫富不均现象。

经济学家纽里埃·鲁比尼预测中国的增长将在2013至2015年间放缓,依据是该国占GDP近50%的固定资产投资需要收取社会和经济回报。鲁比尼认为,目前为止中国的出口导向型增长都依赖于“以世界其他地方无法比拟的价格,生产世界其他地方需要的东西”这一原则,而这也是廉价劳动力和世界经济产业链所催生的结果,但这种成本优势也正在迅速消失。

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