crowd china street Stefan Irvine/LightRocket/Getty Images

Jak udržet růst v rychle stárnoucí Asii

SINGAPUR – Asie je už několik desetiletí světovým šampionem v hospodářském růstu a ani letošní rok nebude výjimkou. Podle nejnovějšího Regionálního ekonomického výhledu (REO) Mezinárodního měnového fondu se má HDP v asijsko-pacifickém regionu zvýšit v letošním roce o 5,5% a v příštím roce o 5,4%.

Navzdory eskalujícím geopolitickým napětím si většina zemí v tomto regionu dokázala udržet ekonomickou dynamiku. Těží přitom z politických receptů podporujících silnou domácí poptávku v Číně a Japonsku a z příznivých globálních podmínek. Růst nabírá v mnoha rozvinutých a rozvíjejících se tržních ekonomikách tempo a finanční trhy se z převážné části ukázaly jako odolné.

Přesto se Asie bude muset popasovat se zásadními střednědobými a dlouhodobými překážkami, v neposlední řadě i se stárnutím svého obyvatelstva – kterýžto problém většina politiků dobře zná. V uplynulých desetiletích sklízel region demografickou dividendu díky mladé a expandující pracovní síle a robustní prorůstové politice. V případě „starých“ zemí, jako jsou Japonsko a Čína, se však už tato dividenda vyčerpala. V situaci, kdy úhrnná plodnost klesá a lidé žijí déle, se snižuje celkový objem pracovní síly a ta současně stárne.

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