Barrie Maguire

La vulnerabilidad de Asia

NEW HAVEN – Pasada la crisis financiera de 2008 y 2009, era bastante comprensible que las autoridades asiáticas se dejaran estar. Es verdad que el crecimiento de la región se desaceleró abruptamente, lo cual era previsible tratándose de economías orientadas a las exportaciones que de pronto se vieron confrontadas con la peor caída del comercio internacional desde la década de 1930. Pero (con la notable excepción de Japón, que sufrió su depresión más profunda en la era moderna), Asia salió de este período extraordinariamente difícil muy bien parada.

El tiempo pasó y, por segunda vez en menos de cuatro años, Asia está siendo golpeada por un shock de demanda externa a gran escala. Esta vez el shock viene de Europa, donde una violenta crisis de deuda externa amenaza con convertir una recesión moderada en algo mucho peor: la posibilidad de que Grecia abandone el euro, que podría iniciar un contagio a toda la eurozona. Y esto para Asia no sería asunto de poca monta.

Asia tiene con Europa vínculos financieros y comerciales que la vuelven muy vulnerable a los problemas del otro continente. Por el lado de los vínculos financieros, no se puede tomar a la ligera el riesgo que supone para Asia una crisis bancaria europea. Al no haber mercados de capitales bien desarrollados que sirvan como fuente alternativa de crédito, los canales de financiación bancaria son especialmente vitales en Asia.

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