Barrie Maguire

Gefährdetes Asien

NEW HAVEN: Asiatische Regierungsvertreter waren im Gefolge der Finanzkrise von 2008-2009 verständlicherweise mit sich selbst zufrieden. Zwar verlangsamte sich das Wachstum in der Region stark, wie nicht anders zu erwarten, wenn exportorientierte Volkswirtschaften mit dem stärksten Zusammenbruch des globalen Handels seit den 1930er Jahren konfrontiert werden. Doch mit Ausnahme Japans, das seine tiefste Rezession in der modernen Ära erlitt, ging Asien aus einer außergewöhnlich schwierigen Phase in hervorragendem Zustand hervor.

Das war damals. Nun wird Asien zum zweiten Mal in nicht mal vier Jahren von einem erheblichen Einbruch der Außennachfrage erschüttert. Diesmal geht er von Europa aus, wo eine wütende staatliche Schuldenkrise eine milde Rezession in etwas sehr viel Schlimmeres zu verwandeln droht: einen möglichen Ausstieg Griechenlands aus dem Euro, der eine Ansteckung des gesamten Euroraums auslösen könnte. Für Asien ist dies ein großes Problem.

Seine Verbindungen im Bereich des Finanzwesens und des Handels machen Asien hochgradig anfällig gegenüber der Malaise in Europa. Aufgrund Ersterer darf man die für Asien von einer europäischen Bankenkrise ausgehenden Risiken nicht auf die leichte Schulter nehmen. Da es dort an gut entwickelten Kapitalmärkten als alternativer Quelle von Krediten fehlt, sind die Banken als Finanzierungskanäle in Asien besonders wichtig.

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