Barrie Maguire

L'Asie menacée par la crise mondiale

NEW-HAVEN – Après la crise financière de 2008-2009 les pays asiatiques avaient de bonnes raisons d'être satisfaits d'eux-mêmes. Même si leur croissance a chuté, car leurs économies reposent essentiellement sur les exportations, ils ont traversé sans grand dommage la plus grande crise affectant le commerce mondial depuis les années 1930 (à l'exception notable du Japon qui a connu sa plus grave récession de l'époque moderne).

Mais la situation a changé depuis. Pour la deuxième fois en moins de quatre ans, l'Asie est frappée par un choc majeur lié à la demande extérieure. Cette fois-ci le choc vient d'Europe où une crise ravageuse de la dette souveraine menace de transformer une simple récession en quelque-chose de bien plus grave : la sortie éventuelle de la Grèce de la zone euro qui pourrait se propager à travers toute la zone. C'est une situation inquiétante pour l'Asie.

L'intensité des relations financières et commerciales entre les deux continents fait que l'Asie est très vulnérable face à la crise européenne. Il ne faut pas prendre à la légère les risques que lui fait courir la crise des banques européennes. Le financement bancaire est vital pour le continent, car il ne dispose pas de marchés financiers suffisamment développés susceptibles de servir de source de crédit de remplacement.

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