Barrie Maguire

آسيا في خطر

نيوهافين ــ كان من المفهوم أن تبدي السلطات الآسيوية قدراً من العجرفة في أعقاب الأزمة المالية أثناء الفترة 2008-2009. لقد تباطأ النمو في المنطقة بشكل حاد، كما ربما كان متوقعاً في الدول التي يعتمد اقتصادها على التصدير والتي تواجه أكبر انهيار في التجارة العالمية منذ ثلاثينيات القرن العشرين. ولكن باستثناء اليابان، التي عانت من أعمق ركود تشهده البلاد على الإطلاق في العصر الحديث، فإن آسيا تمكنت من اجتياز فترة عصيبة للغاية بنجاح مبهر.

كان ذلك آنذاك. ولكن للمرة الثانية في أقل من أربع سنوات، تضرب آسيا صدمة طلب خارجي كبرى. وهذه المرة من أوروبا، حيث تهدد أزمة الديون السيادية المستعرة بتحويل حالة من الركود المعتدل إلى شيء أشد سوءا: خروج  اليونان المحتمل من اليورو، والذي قد يؤدي إلى انتشار العدوى إلى مختلف بلدان منطقة اليورو. وهذا أمر بالغ الأهمية بالنسبة لآسيا.

إن الروابط المالية والتجارية تجعل آسيا معرضة بشدة للوعكة التي تمر بها أوروبا. وبسبب الروابط المالية فلا يجوز لنا أن نستخف بالمخاطر التي تهدد آسيا والمتمثلة في الأزمة المصرفية الأوروبية. فمع الافتقار إلى أسواق رأس المال المتطورة كمصدر بديل للائتمان، تشكل قنوات تمويل البنوك أهمية بالغة في آسيا.

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