风暴袭向亚洲

伯克利——在2011年行将结束之际,有越来越多的迹象表明,亚洲正在陷入全球减速,该地区经济体可以与欧洲和美国复苏乏力的长时间衰退“脱钩”的希望越来越渺茫。中国出口增长正在下滑,主要原因是超越美国成为中国最大海外市场的欧洲的需求在消退。事实上,中国制造业活动出现了近3年来的首次下滑。依赖中国生产者和欧美市场的其他新兴亚洲经济体的反应也相当强烈。

2008年并没有发生脱钩,当时,在泛亚洲GDP(不含日本)中,出口要占大约45%,随着世界贸易量的剧烈萎缩,该地区的所有新兴经济体都经历了大幅衰退。如今,脱钩也不可能发生,因为出口占该地区GDP的比重并为下降,且其中50%的出口对象是发达国家。

因此,脱钩的构想完全是镜花水月。即使欧元危机得到了解决,欧洲的紧缩和美国的疲软仍意味着依赖出口的亚洲会减速。但亚洲经济体仍能以比发达西方快得多的速度增长,如果它们通过转向内需(特别是家庭消费)实现增长再平衡以应对出口的长期停滞的话。好消息是,这些经济体有很大的再平衡空间,也有足够的政策灵活度来实现它。

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